hi and welcome back to CRYPTO V and today guys we're jumping down into the charts for bitcoin taking a look at what's been going on most recently and what i would expect to happen next now as i get into this artecle
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usdt we're on the hourly chart and
binance is the data source now in yesterday's artecle we're talking about a potential leading diagonal and then a
bounce to the upside i still think the bounce is likely to happen here however i no longer think this is a leading diagonal i actually just think it's a five wave drop so let's go ahead and just show you what that looks like let's just clear off these bulger bands just get rid of that for a second and we'll remove those five waves right so we end up with this pretty simple zigzag pattern over here and just moving up.
into our fourth wave high this came in
at 21 888 what i'm going to do is i'm going to remove the zigzags now and what i'm going to do is i'm going to mark this up as an abc so it's easier to kind of keep our uh our eyes on it right so we know exactly what that was okay so we have the a three wave move abc that is a zigzag five three five nonetheless that's all done we hit the.
high and then we started to pull back
down now one of the things that we're looking at and talking about yesterday is we needed to see the price move down lower than 19770 and that just right now has happened so in the last hour and we've seen this price pull back down lower than our dash line here this confirms that there is no more upwards action.
here and we do not have an overextended
third wave as i was talking about the other day um meaning that there is still now the potential for the drop to the downside so let's go ahead and now mark this up right so i'm going to just remove those for a second okay so we now know that we have dropped down here so i can get rid of this dashed line at the.
top that's irrelevant and get rid of
this one okay perfect okay so this was my expectations for the bounce okay i still think we're going to bounce and i'm going to show you why in a second okay so i'm just going to move this over here for a sec right so we have this drop and we had a lot of overlap to start with i think all of this is a single wave to the downside and so what i'm going to do is i'm going to mark.
this up as a wave one here a wave two
here this being our way three four and now we're finishing with five okay so i'm expecting reversal really soon and so let's actually grab this and see where this is going now we'll see whether or not we hit in our expectations and so a little over extending here okay so if we're over extending like this then we should be looking at an alternative way of.
counting and so if i can take all of
this up here to the top grab it move it over here and six one eight basically we should come down to pretty much actually where i've got this fifth wave marked right now and so my expectations here are going to be somewhere in around about here about uh 19237 we just go ahead and change that to 37. okay.
and so basically there's a couple of
alternative ways of counting alternatively again from this we actually see a five wave drop which i think we are looking for here and so we go one two three down here four five like that okay so we end up with that five wave drop here okay so we're kind of looking out for that um and i think we've also kind of got a weird one right in here as well one two three four and.
five like that and up here in this wave
one i think is really hard to spot theremight be something in there on a smaller time frame and but i think this actually then marked the reversal point uh and the bounce to the upside right and so we're targeting a little bit more to the downside and then a bounce now we take a look at the stochastic you can see here on the hourly chart that we are oversold.
on the four hourly chart oversold eight
hourly chart oversold daily obviously has to come back down but it's not overbought we can go back up as we had done previously so again indicating that we could just move up into our range now let's take a look at the typical wave twos okay so a wave two retracement and if we do come down to this load here area just here.
then we would be looking at moving up
just ever so slightly higher here let me just grab hold of my rang um so we're looking at twenty one thousand five hundred and fifty seven okay on the higher side of that spectrum let me just do that and on the lower side uh we'll be looking at twenty one thousand and sixty one okay so we put that in there as well okay now i can just remove the fib and we have this okay so now we're looking for a bit.
of a bounce a bit of a bounce to the
upside what i will actually do is actually i'm going to mark that back up here okay we cannot cross this level in order to make sure that we um are staying in this uh structure to the downside we want to make sure that we do not cross higher than 21 888 and so that's important that we keep that dashed line just there okay so we've got a low target we've got a.
higher range at targets here between
twenty one thousand sixty one and twenty one thousand five hundred and fifty seven so what i'm expecting is all of this is a wave one drop okay this becomes a wave two bounce and then we drop down in a really significant way again probably just touching this areawe bounce up and then we finish it off.
into our lower ranges okay and so that's
kind of the expectations let me just move that back there and so that's the expectations here right that's kind of what we're looking for we're looking for basically a five three five three five now uh on this note if we'd have to we have to move up in a pretty significant way let me just grab this move this over to that higher end here um yeah so we'll be looking at trying to come down to this 1.618 if we take it.
from that lower side there and yeah that
actually puts us approximately around here so just before we actually hit our low zones uh in there and then if we do bounce up we would be looking for a bounce of let me just see there's a lot of speculation here guys because this is not um a guaranteed move or anything like that we would look for about there and then from here we would.
look at about here so our fifth wave
would estimate uh about 16 262. okay so what i've done here guys is i've kind of speculated that maybe we'll only reach 21 061 so the bounce is not as much as we would like it to be and we fall a little bit short if that is the case our wave 2 would end here our wave 3 should normally be about 1.618 okay so,
i put that in there as a typical wave 3
move and then we bounce up to a typical wave 4 retracement of 3 point uh oh well yeah three point three eight two basically it's a zero point three eight two retracement level thirty eight point two percent retracement level four wave four and then we pull back down to a one.
point six one eight of the wave four
movement taking us down to sixteen thousand so a little bit of speculation there based on what we'd expect typically from a wave two three four and five and so i'll tidy that up i'll just remove these fibs okay it is speculation it doesn't mean that we come into our little yellow box area of our fifth wave.
measurement here and but falling
actually around the mid mid range area not really in the lower end more the higher end spectrum here and so just a little bit north of the 16k um so one of the things that we've got to look out for is to make sure that we do not cross higher than 21 888 that would invalidate the structure.
to the downside here on this particular
pattern um but be in the fact that thi could be a five wave drop which i do think it is um basicallywe would at least expect a zigzag at this point and so a five three five um but confirmation of we are definitely in the correct structure and would come in by dropping down lower than seventeen thousand six hundred and twenty two but to be fair uh by the time you're in.
these lower ranges you should have a
pretty good idea as to whether or not you've gone down um to a 1.618 of the entire structure that you're kind of looking for so i'm looking pretty good from a bitcoin perspective here um i'm.
still expecting the bounces do you think that's happening i actually thought it
was going to happen a little bit earlier with the leading diagonal and but unfortunately that wasn't the case so you know yeah i'd still expect us to move back up and we should be able to take advantage of that situation and then obviously capitalize on on the pullback to the downside and so yeah for the most part.
that's kind of what's going on there now
let's just check that daily chart right just bring this back down a little bit and you can kind of see that we're reaching these kind of low ranges if i bring up our bitcoin here on our weekly chart from a bit stamp perspective this is the one that has all of this other data in there across the years and th reason i want to bring this into play.
here is for a couple of reasons
one if i bring in the gaussian channel here uh we can obviously see how the gaussian veb uh be you know playing out and but we are really looking at this little area right so we moved down initially we bounced up and now we're looking to just pull us down into this bear market low and taking it down lower than the structure now what's interesting and the
reason that we've got the fib on here is
we have already bounced from a 1.6b1.382 and we want to drop down but bwant to avoid hitting 1.618 not that i think it's going to happen but it would put us into a potential weekly five wave structural move to the downside um and that would be pretty bad there would be a significant bounce up.
and then another collapse to the
downside which you know for for the most part i wouldn't be too opposed to um but it would mean that we would have this kind of slightly longer bear market phase um but it would be a fantastic opportunity so i'm not opposed to such an idea but you know i think for most retail investors they're probably kind of fed up and not wanting to necessarily see it come down um to those lows so we're.
watching out for that as well
and we want to avoid that where possible um but it is definitely a possibility so we want to kind of keep an eye on that and what i mean guys is basically we have this one two uh if we drop down to about fourteen and a half thousand dollars that becomes a way three we bounce up probably towards 22k and then drop down.
and again that next drop to the downside
could take us you know lower than 12 000 so um there's huge opportunities in all of that but i think most retail investors are probably going to want to avoid it um so um just bear that in mind and but for the most part the guardian channels indicating pretty good things in the same way that we had seen it previously the value is definitely here and we've got a little bit longer to kind of wait.
and i think really
we are in a pretty good spot with bitcoin's accumulation altcoin accumulation but do expect more pain and do expect more of a you know a significant drop to come but a bouncer relief bounce is due in my opinion and i do think it is just around the corner guys i'm gonna leave the artecle there if you have found this useful and informative hit
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